IFS Says Ghana’s 2026 Growth and Revenue Targets Are Unrealistic

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has raised concerns about Ghana's 2026 economic projections, describing the government's growth and revenue targets as unrealistic and calling for them to be reviewed.

The assessment comes as the government seeks to consolidate Ghana's recent economic recovery while implementing the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review.

According to IFS Executive Director Dr Said Boakye, the government's projections do not fully reflect the stronger-than-expected performance of the economy. He said fiscal targets should be based on the latest available economic evidence to improve the credibility of the national budget.

IFS Questions Growth and Revenue Projections

The IFS said the nominal GDP, real GDP growth rate and total revenue and grants-to-GDP ratio targets contained in the 2026 budget were unrealistic.

Dr Boakye argued that stronger economic performance should have prompted government to update some of its projections rather than maintain assumptions that may no longer reflect current economic conditions.

The institute said outdated projections could make it more difficult to properly assess fiscal performance and plan government expenditure.

It has therefore called for greater use of independent reviews of government forecasts before they are incorporated into budget statements.

Ghana's Economy Showing Stronger Signs of Recovery

The IFS acknowledged that Ghana's economy has recorded a number of positive developments.

Inflation and interest rates have been declining, while economic activity has remained stronger than some earlier projections suggested.

KPMG and UNDP, in their assessment of the 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review, also noted that real GDP growth reached 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, above the government's annual target.

However, the IFS believes that stronger growth should be reflected more accurately in the government's fiscal projections.

Gold Sector Raises Revenue Concerns

One of the areas highlighted by the IFS is Ghana's rapidly expanding gold sector.

The institute said Ghana's gold exports more than doubled in 2025, rising by 103.3% from US$10.31 billion to US$20.98 billion.

Small-scale mining accounted for approximately US$10.8 billion, representing 51.5% of total gold exports.

Despite this significant increase, the IFS said mineral royalties rose by only 21%, from US$364 million in 2024 to US$441 million in 2025.

The institute argued that the growth in gold exports has not yet translated into a corresponding increase in government revenue.

IFS Calls for Better Revenue Collection

The institute has urged government to develop a clearer strategy for capturing more revenue from small-scale mining.

This includes improving monitoring, strengthening compliance and ensuring that Ghana receives a fair share from the exploitation of its mineral resources.

The issue is particularly significant as the government continues its efforts to increase domestic revenue without undermining economic activity.

Concerns Over Budget Execution

Beyond the projections themselves, the IFS also raised concerns about the implementation of the 2026 budget during the first half of the year.

The institute reported that total expenditure was GH¢35.6 billion below the budgeted amount, while capital expenditure recorded a shortfall of GH¢14.35 billion.

According to the IFS, delays in implementing planned expenditure, including arrears payments, could affect economic activity and ultimately weaken growth.

The institute has therefore urged government to align actual spending more closely with approved budget plans and improve the reliability of fiscal data.

What the IFS Assessment Means

The latest assessment does not suggest that Ghana's economic recovery has stalled. Rather, the IFS is questioning whether the government's fiscal targets accurately reflect the pace and structure of that recovery.

The debate is therefore shifting from whether Ghana's economy is recovering to whether government is setting the right targets for measuring and managing that recovery.

For businesses, investors and ordinary Ghanaians, the credibility of those targets matters because government revenue and expenditure projections influence economic planning, public investment and the availability of resources for development.

The IFS is calling for the government to update its projections whenever new economic data show that the outlook has materially changed.

As Ghana continues its economic recovery, the government's response to the IFS assessment could provide an important indication of how fiscal policy will be adjusted during the remainder of 2026.

Global Pulse GH will continue to follow Ghana's economic performance, revenue mobilisation and implementation of the 2026 budget.